[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"public:site-config":3,"public:page:eb5-india-china-competition-20261105":33,"public:navigation:footer":70,"public:navigation:header":374,"public:page:eb5-india-china-competition-20261105:related":682},{"site_name":4,"site_logo":5,"site_favicon":6,"seo_title":7,"seo_description":8,"seo_keywords":9,"og_image":10,"canonical_base":11,"organization_name":12,"organization_description":13,"organization_logo":14,"organization_url":15,"same_as":16,"contact_phone":19,"contact_phone_2":20,"contact_email":21,"contact_address":22,"contact_wechat":23,"contact_wechat_mp":24,"contact_wechat_video":25,"ga_tracking_id":26,"baidu_tongji_id":27,"custom_head_code":28,"custom_body_code":28,"copyright_text":29,"icp_number":30,"footer_tagline":31,"notification_email":32},"北极星移民官网","\u002Fuploads\u002F1778653641812419739.png","\u002Fuploads\u002F1786498375471093009.png","{site_name} - 专注海外身份规划与全球资产配置，覆盖美国EB-5\u002FEB-1A、香投资移民、土耳其投资移民、巴拿马购房移民、欧洲黄金签证及加勒比护照项目","北极星移民专注海外身份规划13年+，提供美国EB-5投资移民、香港资本投资者入境计划、土耳其投资移民、巴拿马购房移民、欧洲黄金签证、海外护照等一站式移民服务。2万+成功案例，96.67%成功率。","移民,投资移民,美国EB5投资移民,香港投资移民,巴拿马移民,海外护照,购房移民,海外身份,绿卡,黄金签证,北极星移民,移民中介  ","\u002Fuploads\u002F1782440305871956066.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.northstarvisa.com","深圳福瑞特出入境信息咨询有限公司 ","北极星移民成立于2013年，总部位于深圳，专注海外身份规划与全球资产配置，覆盖美国EB-5\u002FEB-1A、香投资移民、土耳其投资移民、巴拿马购房移民、欧洲黄金签证及加勒比护照项目。","\u002Fuploads\u002F1782440752732406633.png","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.northstarvisa.com\u002F",[17,18],"https:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs\u002FFcCcdgIZFdB46MMwtxwqzw","https:\u002F\u002Fweixin.qq.com\u002Fsph\u002FAs5v2JBNlD","400-963-6933","19076162807","amberkang@szxxvip.com","中国深圳市南山区粤海街道卓越后海中心40楼02B","\u002Fuploads\u002F1778916216180453670.png","\u002Fuploads\u002F1778916222329189747.png","\u002Fuploads\u002F1778916227024550266.png","G-P70N497ZSE","b8ef9688f8af6c3287591ab3b9ce71af","","© {year} 深圳福瑞特出入境信息咨询有限公司. 版权所有","粤ICP备2023029687号","北极星移民深耕海外身份领域，专注美国 EB5、香港身份与海外护照规划，甄选全球合规移民项目，不止代办身份，更是您专属的家庭综合规划师。","1316260549@qq.com",{"id":34,"project_id":35,"title":36,"slug":37,"content":38,"cover_image":39,"tags":40,"cover_image_variants":51,"meta_title":61,"meta_description":62,"template":63,"page_type":64,"status":65,"sort_order":66,"is_pinned":67,"created_at":68,"updated_at":69},696,null,"EB-5申请量印度追平中国了？无排期窗口还能开多久","eb5-india-china-competition-20261105","\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>北极星移民的判断：EB-5 预留类别在 11 月签证公告里仍是 Current，但这扇无排期窗口正在被全球申请人争抢——IIUSA 基于 USCIS 季度统计的数据显示，FY2026 前三季度印度投资者递件 1,977 份，首次略超中国的 1,970 份。无排期从来不等于没有竞争，窗口越往后，审理积压、配额争夺、费用与投资额上调三重压力越近，符合条件就该尽早落位。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fuploads\u002F1793848388538475309.jpg\" alt=\"清晨薄雾中的国际机场跑道与远处航站楼剪影，冷蓝灰色调，无文字\" width=\"100%\">\u003Ch1>一、数据摊开：印度 1,977 份，中国 1,970 份\u003C\u002Fh1>\u003Cp>先把事实摆上桌。IIUSA 在 2026 年 9 月 10 日发布的 I-526E 季度分析（数据来源为 USCIS FY2026 第三季度统计）里，有几个数字值得反复看：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ctable>\u003Ctbody>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>指标\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>数值\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>FY2026 第三季度 EB-5 收件\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>1,665 份（I-526E 1,599 + I-526 66）\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>RIA 生效以来累计投资者申请\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>近 20,000 份\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>FY2026 前三季度募集资金\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>约 41.8 亿美元\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>印度投资者申请（Q1-Q3）\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>1,977 份\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>中国投资者申请（Q1-Q3）\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>1,970 份\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>Q3 I-526E 审理\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>904 份（687 批准 \u002F 217 拒），批准率 76%\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>I-526E 待审库存（2026-06-30）\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>\u003Cp>11,192 份，同比 +25%\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003C\u002Ftbody>\u003C\u002Ftable>\u003Cp>数据来源：IIUSA《I-526E Data Analysis for Q3 FY2026》，原始数据来自 USCIS 季度统计（2026-09-10 发布）\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>IIUSA 的原话是两国"几乎并列"（virtually tied）。差距只有 7 份，但趋势很清楚：印度市场在持续放量，中国不再是唯一的主力买家。更有意思的是项目偏好——中国和印度投资人继续扎堆乡村项目，而台湾、韩国、越南的投资人更多选择高失业地区（HUA）项目。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch1>二、印度人为什么突然涌进 EB-5？\u003C\u002Fh1>\u003Cp>答案在职业移民的排期表里。2026 年 11 月签证公告显示，印度 EB-2 的最终行动日停在 2013 年 11 月 1 日，EB-3 停在 2014 年 1 月 22 日——对印度出生的技术移民来说，这是十几年量级的等待。而 EB-5 预留类别（乡村、高失业、基建）在同一份公告里全部是 Current。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>一边是十几年，一边是"无名额截止日"。对孟买、班加罗尔的高净值家庭，这道算术题不需要算太久。IIUSA 的数据也印证：FY2026 印度市场对 HUA 项目的需求在上升，说明这批新入场的印度投资人不再只盯乡村，开始分散配置。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>这对中国申请人意味着一件事：\u003Cstrong>EB-5 的配额竞争已经全球化，不再是"中国人内部排队"。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch1>三、USCIS 自己算的账：年收件要从 1.1 万冲到 1.66 万\u003C\u002Fh1>\u003Cp>如果说 IIUSA 的数据是"已经发生的事"，联邦公报里的预测则是"官方预期会发生的事"。2026 年 9 月 30 日发布的 EB-5 费规（91 FR 61940）写明：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fuploads\u002F1793848389221770664.jpg\" alt=\"美国联邦公报91 FR 61940第2页：USCIS预测EB-5年收件从11,262份增至16,604份\" width=\"100%\">\u003Cp>数据来源：Federal Register Vol. 91, No. 188（2026-09-30），91 FR 61940，第 61941 页；USCIS Volume Projection Committee FY2026\u002F2027 预测\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>原文表述是：USCIS 用 2026、2027 财年的量级预测更新了收件模型，把 EB-5 \u003Cstrong>年均收件预测从 11,262 份上调到 16,604 份\u003C\u002Fstrong>，涨幅接近 47.5%；行业解读进一步指出，其中约 8,500 份是 I-526E。同一份费规还披露了另一组账目：EB-5 项目年成本约 1.05 亿美元，按现行收费年收入约 5,660 万美元，缺口约 4,840 万美元——这正是 11 月 30 日起 I-526E 涨到 7,850 美元、加 1,100 美元诚信基金后合计 8,950 美元的直接原因。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>把两组数字放在一起看，逻辑就顺了：\u003Cstrong>官方自己预计未来每年有 1.66 万份申请涌进来，而审理产能和签证配额并没有同比例扩容。\u003C\u002Fstrong>积压怎么走，不用猜——截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日，I-526E 待审已经到 11,192 份，同比涨了 25%。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch1>四、无排期窗口还能开多久？盯三个指标\u003C\u002Fh1>\u003Cp>先说结论：\u003Cstrong>官方暂未明确预留类别的排期时间表\u003C\u002Fstrong>，USCIS 与国务院都没有给出"何时会出现截止日"的官方预测。能做的是盯住三个可验证的指标。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>指标一：签证公告里预留三类是否还是 C。\u003C\u002Fstrong>2026 年 11 月公告中，乡村、高失业、基建三类预留签证对全球申请人仍显示 Current；非预留类别里，中国停在 2016 年 12 月 1 日，印度停在 2023 年 12 月 1 日（IIUSA 10 月 23 日解读，原文见国务院 Visa Bulletin）。只要预留池仍是 C，双递交（I-526E 与 I-485 同时递交）的窗口就还在。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>指标二：I-526E 待审库存的增速。\u003C\u002Fstrong>排期本质是"需求÷配额"的函数。库存 11,192 份、同比 +25%，而预留类别每年配额有限——乡村占 EB-5 年度名额 20%、高失业 10%、基建 2%（RIA 规定）。需求端在加速，配额端是固定的，这个剪刀差是排期的前兆。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>指标三：中印两国是否同时逼近 7% 国别上限。\u003C\u002Fstrong>EB-5 签证受 INA § 202(a)(2)（8 U.S.C. § 1152(a)(2)）每国 7% 上限约束。过去中国一家独大时，配额压力集中在一国；现在印度追平，两国同时放量，同一池子的国别额度会更早被顶到天花板。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>三个指标没有一个是"官方宣布排期"的替代品，但它们比任何预测都可靠——因为它们每月都在更新，看得见。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch1>五、辟谣三条\u003C\u002Fh1>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>说法一："预留类别无排期，等于几个月就能拿绿卡。"\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>不对。签证公告的 Current 只表示"该类别当月没有签证截止日"，不代表 I-526E 审理、背景调查、面签或身份调整会同步加速。I-526E 待审 1.1 万份、Q3 批准率 76%，审理节奏摆在那里。无排期解决的是"名额"，不是"速度"。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>说法二："印度人一多，中国申请人就没名额了。"\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>数据不支持这个说法。FY2026 前三季度中国递件 1,970 份，与印度几乎持平，中国仍是全球最大的 EB-5 市场之一；7% 国别上限意味着各国在同一个池子里各算各的额度，不是零和抢夺。真正要关注的是总需求上涨对整体窗口的挤压，而不是"被谁挤掉"。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>说法三："11 月 30 日涨价后，审批会变快。"\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>官方没有这样承诺。91 FR 61940 只说新费用有助于实现《EB-5 改革法案》设定的审理时间目标，DHS 并未把处理时限写入法规正文；行业内也有律师直言，2024 年那次涨费并没有带来可感知的提速（属行业观察，非官方结论）。更现实的判断是：钱解决的是 USCIS 的成本缺口，不解决排队本身。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch1>六、踩坑清单与 Q&A\u003C\u002Fh1>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>坑一：只看"无排期"，不看项目 I-956F 状态。\u003C\u002Fstrong>投资人自己的 I-526E 能递，前提是项目方的 I-956F 已获批或至少已递交。项目没走完这一关，你抢到的只是"递件日期"，不是审理顺位。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>坑二：为赶窗口仓促递件，材料带病。\u003C\u002Fstrong>11 月 30 日费规、2027 年 1 月投资额调整，两个节点挤在一起，最容易出现"先递后补"的操作。EB-5 要求递件时即处于积极投资状态且材料完整，带病递件换来的是 RFE，时间反而被拖进更贵的区间。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>坑三：忽视区域中心年审记录。\u003C\u002Fstrong>I-956G 年审是否按时、审计是否配合，直接反映区域中心的合规底色。选项目先查这一项，比看宣传册有效得多。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>坑四：把期房项目的就业预测当既成事实。\u003C\u002Fstrong>建筑类就业模型依赖实际资金支出进度，项目没开工，就业就没有落地。窗口期抢的是时间，不是项目成熟度。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Q：中国出生，现在递预留类别真的没有排期？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>A：按 2026 年 11 月签证公告，乡村、高失业、基建三类对全球（含中国）均为 Current。但这是"当月状态"，不是长期承诺，下一份公告随时可能变化。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Q：乡村和高失业怎么选？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>A：先看配额池大小——乡村占 20%、HUA 占 10%，乡村池子更大；再看项目本身的就业模型、抵押物与退出路径。配额是概率，项目质量是底线，两者不能倒过来选。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Q：11 月 30 日前递件能省多少？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>A：区域中心投资人从 4,675 美元（I-526E 3,675 + 诚信基金 1,000）变为 8,950 美元（7,850 + 1,100），差 4,275 美元；I-829 阶段另有 3,750→5,000 美元的变化。前提是 11 月 29 日前完成邮戳。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>北极星移民是美国 IIUSA 协会会员，长期跟踪 USCIS 的审案口径与季度数据；美国松州区域中心官方认证合作伙伴，独立尽调团队实地考察过 60 余个项目，只与年审合规、履约透明的头部区域中心合作。窗口期里最值钱的动作不是抢递件，而是先把资金来源和项目底稿过一遍预审——把补件风险留在递件之前解决，这才是"无排期"真正能兑现的部分。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cimg 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